In fact, Pogačar was in the top three in 87 of the 95 simulated Tours he finished, and Roglič was on the podium 78 times. In the 18 Tours that Pogačar or Roglič didn’t win, they were very likely to finish on the podium. Of those 18, 11 were won by an Ineos rider.īased on how the real-life Tour is unfolding, Pogačar’s dominance in these simulations doesn’t feel too far removed from reality. You’ll note that only 18 of the 100 Tours weren’t won by Pogačar or Roglič. Over the course of 100 simulations, nine different riders took at least one overall victory: In the case of the WorldDB 2021 mod, these stats are determined by members of the PCM community who helped create the mod. Each rider in PCM is given a rating out of 100 for a total of 13 different skills. Let’s dive into some of the more interesting results. That’s 2,100 simulated stages, many, many hours of waiting for various loading screens, and plenty of time spent cataloguing all the results the game generated. Then, over the course of a week, they simulated the Tour 100 times over, using the same course and startlist as the real thing. Ser-seaworth took last season’s version of PCM and added a community-created mod – “ WorldDB 2021” – to update the game’s database to reflect the 2021 racing season. “Inspired by every single rider who makes the early break on a flat stage, I decided to embark on a futile journey of my own: to simulate the entire Tour de France 100 times.” In a post in the Peloton subreddit – a Reddit community focused on the pro racing scene – ser-seaworth explained the project as follows: Which brings us to what Reddit user “ser-seaworth” put together over the past week or so. That is, for any given race, you have a choice: play out that race by controlling your riders, or let the game simulate what would happen, taking into accounts the strengths of each rider, the race situation, and the terrain. (If you’re keen to learn more about the PCM franchise, follow the links for our reviews of the 2013, 2014, 20 editions.) Over the course of a racing season (or multiple seasons) you pick your riders for each race then take control of those riders as they tackle each event on the calendar. Pro Cycling Manager (PCM) is a videogame series that puts you in the shoes of a team manager. Bike racing is just too complex, with too many confounding variables, to predict anything with any real certainty.īut what if there was another way to predict how a bike race might unfold? What if we could run a simulation to do that job for us? And if we could do that, what would that simulation tell us about how the 2021 Tour de France was going to unfold? It’s something we do regularly here at CyclingTips when we write our race previews and while we’re sometimes on the money, we usually aren’t. Predicting the outcome of bike races is a fraught business. Heading out the door? Read this article on the new Outside+ app available now on iOS devices for members!
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